February 2026 Market Action Report: Portland Metro and Yamhill, Polk, and Marion Counties
- The McCreith Team
- 2 hours ago
- 8 min read
We made some bold predictions as we launched into 2026. Some have held true and we've been surprised by others. As we look back at the month of February in today's blog post, I'm reminded that no single month defines the year. Patterns do emerge year over year, and they are fairly consistent and predictable (see those graphs in the attached report). We like that! But no one can predict the future perfectly.
February was a quieter month than we anticipated. After January started off with such momentum, we were surprised that it eased up in February, especially in light of rates dipping into the 5s for the first time in 4 years. One thing we are paying attention to right now: we are seeing more sale fails, highlighting a couple of things to us:
Buyers are discerning. They have more leverage in our current market than any time over the past 8-10 years, and they are holding the line when sellers don't come to the table willing to negotiate.
Bringing a home to market involves so much more than photos and a sign in the yard. If a seller wants to be well-presented and compelling to buyers, there will be some strategy and even some investment in the process.
Patience is the name of the game. Sometime deals just don't come together. If there is anything we have learned from 2 decades in this industry, it is that there is a buyer for every home. The first one that comes along is not always the right one, and there are good reasons - from both a buyer and seller perspective - for walking away from a deal.
As a lender said just this morning to Amy's first time buyer, "This is all part of the process! All good; we will find you the perfect home!"
Here's what February's numbers are telling us, and what it means for you.
Download the full February 2026 Market Action Reports
Portland Metro: More Listings, More Activity,
Prices Finding Their Floor
February brought a notable surge in new listings: 2,260 homes came to market, up 17.1% from February 2025, and up 7.2% from January. That's sellers stepping up. And buyers showed up too. Pending sales climbed to 1,821, a 10.5% increase over last February and up 6.6% from January. That gap between new listings and pending sales is what contributes to the dip that we predicted would happen to the "Inventory in Months" chart in last month's Market Action Report.
Closed sales came in at 1,405, down just 1.6% from February 2025, but up a significant 26.5% from January. That January-to-February jump is typical and expected. Look at the pattern on the charts and you'll see it every year: closings always accelerate as we move out of the slowest month of the calendar. We're on track.
Inventory landed at 3.6 months in February, down slightly from January's 4.3 months. That dip was also predicted. We noted last month that inventory tends to pull back from its January peak, and that's exactly what happened. But our prediction was too optimistic. We thought that number could dip by as much as 13%. In reality it was closer to 8%, and we are attributing this to an increase in contract terminations as well as slightly lower buyer activity than in years past. Still, we are still sitting in a range that leans toward balance, which is healthy for both buyers and sellers.
Total market time ticked up to 91 days, which is 12 days longer than February 2025. Homes are still selling, though they're just taking a bit more time to find their buyer. That's not a red flag. That's a market where buyers have options and are being thoughtful. It's also a market where sellers are having to consider the consequences that can follow overpricing a home from the start. Strategy and preparation is key.
These are all important trends to pay attention to: those these numbers are very slowly leveling out and still represent a blanaced market, if the trends continue, we could be moving closer to a buyer's market.
Here's a snapshot of where things stand:
Metric | February 2026 | vs. Feb 2025 |
New Listings | 2,260 | +17.1% |
Pending Sales | 1,821 | +10.5% |
Closed Sales | 1,405 | -1.6% |
Average Sale Price | $590,600 | -3.7% |
Median Sale Price | $525,000 | -2.5% |
Total Market Time | 91 days | +12 days |
Inventory | 3.6 months | +0.4 months |
What About Prices?
This is the question everyone asks, and the answer deserves some nuance. The average sale price in February was $590,600, down 3.7% from February 2025. The median came in at $525,000, down 2.5%. Year-to-date, the average is $581,100 and the median is $519,000, both down from the same period last year.
But here's the context that matters: the rolling 12-month comparison, which smooths out the month-to-month noise, shows the average at $609,300 versus $612,400 the prior 12 months. That's just a 0.5% change. The median? Flat at $545,000. No change at all.
What that tells us is that the broader trend is one of stabilization, not a slide. Month-to-month figures can be noisy, especially in winter. The rolling data is the more honest picture, and that picture looks a little boring, but stable.
The $400K–$500K price range continues to be the most active segment of the market, representing 21.6% of all February closings. The $500K–$600K range came in close behind at 19.2%. These two bands together account for over 40% of transactions, which reflects where the real energy in this market lives. If you are thinking about selling and your home falls into this pocket, you get 40% of the market's eyes on you, likely selling faster and with stronger terms than other segments.
And yet, there are always exceptions. Amy did a market analysis for a luxury home ($1 million+) in Cooper Mountain this week. Surprisingly, the neighborhood comps all sold the first week they were on the market, demonstrating the fact that the market is hyper-local. The neighborhood is drawing buyers who want to be there specifically, so when a new home becomes available, it doesn't last.
Polk and Marion Counties: A Market with Real Momentum and Rising Prices
While the Portland Metro is stabilizing, Polk and Marion Counties are telling a slightly different story, and it's a good one for sellers in that corridor. Prices here are actually trending upward, not sideways.
February brought 231 new listings to market in Polk and Marion Counties, up 14.9% from February 2025. Pending sales came in at 218, up a strong 8.5% year-over-year and up an impressive 20.4% from January. That surge in accepted offers is exactly the kind of signal that points to a spring market hitting its stride. Buyers in this area are ready to move.
Closed sales totaled 132, down 5.7% from February 2025 but up 17.9% from January. That acceleration from the slowest month of the year into February is a pattern we see every year, and 2026 is following that track precisely. Worth noting: RMLS serves as a supplementary MLS for Polk and Marion Counties, so these figures reflect a meaningful but not complete picture of activity in the area.
Inventory came in at 4.8 months, notably higher than Portland Metro's 3.6 months, offering buyers in this market a bit more breathing room. Still, that's down from January's 5.9 months, reflecting the same seasonal tightening we're seeing everywhere. Total market time was 80 days, which is actually 11 days faster than Portland Metro, a sign that well-priced homes in the Salem corridor are moving with purpose.
Here's a snapshot of where Polk and Marion stand:
Metric | February 2026 | vs. Feb 2025 |
New Listings | 231 | +14.9% |
Pending Sales | 218 | +8.5% |
Closed Sales | 132 | -5.7% |
Average Sale Price | $476,700 | +12.1% |
Median Sale Price | $447,500 | +4.6% |
Total Market Time | 80 days | +15 days |
Inventory | 4.8 months | +1.3 months |
The Price Story Here Is Different, in a Good Way
While Portland Metro prices are essentially flat on a rolling basis, Polk and Marion Counties are showing genuine appreciation. The rolling 12-month average sale price is $479,400, up 3.7% from the prior 12-month period. The rolling median is $450,000, up 3.4%. Year-to-date, the average sale price has climbed 1.9% to $455,300, and the median is up 1.1% to $440,000.
That modest appreciation, paired with a lower median price point than Portland Metro, makes this market worth a close look for buyers who've felt priced out of the urban core. The $500K-$600K range leads all transactions here at 28.5% of February closings, with $400K-$500K close behind at 20.5%, a price profile that reflects both the area's relative affordability and its growing appeal.
What This Means for Sellers
Spring is here and this is your moment in both markets. More buyers are actively searching, and inventory, while higher than a year ago, is still not overwhelming. But the homes that are winning right now are the ones priced with intention and presented with a strategy.
Buyers are doing their research. They're comparing. If your pricing reflects the market honestly, especially if you're slightly ahead of the curve, you create demand.
Condition still matters enormously in both markets. Move-in-ready homes continue to outperform. If you're thinking about listing this spring, now is the time to have a conversation about what buyers will see when they walk through your door. Small investments in presentation can make a meaningful difference in your final number.
What This Means for Buyers
February's data is actually quite encouraging whether you're searching in the Portland area or the Salem corridor. In Portland Metro, inventory at 3.6 months gives you more options than buyers had in the lean years of 2021 and 2022. In Polk and Marion Counties, 4.8 months of inventory offers even more room to explore. You have time to tour, time to think, and in many cases, room to negotiate.
That said, don't mistake "more inventory" for "unlimited time." The most competitively priced, well-presented homes in both markets are still drawing real interest quickly. The strategy is the same everywhere: know your budget, have your financing in order, and move with confidence when the right home appears.
For buyers who've been stretching to afford Portland Metro price points, the Salem corridor deserves a serious look. With median prices around $447,500, nearly $80,000 less than Portland Metro, and prices still appreciating, Polk and Marion Counties offer a compelling value proposition that's only becoming more recognized.
The affordability picture in Portland Metro is also worth noting: a local family earning the median income can cover 99% of a monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home (based on a 20% down payment and a 30-year fixed rate of 6.2%). But you don't need to have 20% down to buy a home. We know that for many, that feels like an insurmountable feat. We work with some great lenders and would love to connect you with them. Getting pre-approved is pretty painless, and you might be surprised by what you learn!
The Pattern We're Watching
Every spring, the same story unfolds in the data. Inventory peaks in January, dips in February, and then buyer and seller activity accelerates together through March, April, and May. That pattern is playing out in both markets right now, with Portland Metro and Polk/Marion Counties alike tracking alongside 2025 and 2024 in shape, just shifted slightly higher in overall volume.
That consistency is reassuring. These are not unpredictable markets. They are markets that reward planning, timing, and good counsel. Let us put our experience to work for you.
Whether you're thinking about listing this spring, still searching for the right home in Portland or the Salem corridor, or just trying to make sense of what all these numbers mean for your specific situation, we're here for it.
Amy, Catherine, Molly, and Joni are always happy to sit down, walk through the data, and help you build a plan that actually makes sense for your life.
Amy McCormick, Principal Broker
503-310-7803 | amy@thebellacasagroup.com
Catherine Summers, Principal Broker
971-219-9858 | catherine@thebellacasagroup.com
Joni McCreith, Principal Broker
503-310-5613 | joni@thebellacasagroup.com
Molly Barajas, Principal Broker
503-310-4267 | molly@thebellacasagroup.com
No pressure. No hype. Just honest guidance from people who know this market.
Comments