January 2026 Market Action Report for Portland Metro areas including Yamhill, Marion, & Polk Counties
- The McCreith Team
- Feb 6
- 7 min read
It's early February and if you're paying close attention to the real estate market, you've probably noticed something: the market is waking up. Since January 2nd, our phones have been ringing as buyers who spent months watching from the sidelines are motivated by the lowest rates have been in years. Sellers who opted to wait through the holidays are gearing up. The weather has been beautiful and if the last few years have taught us anything, it's that spring is primetime for sellers. If you can time it right, plan for it.
It's not a frenzy, but it is pent up demand. Here's what January's numbers say, and how that helps us to plan for the next few months:
January 2026 gave us the clearest picture yet of where this market is headed. Inventory climbed. Prices stabilized. Days on market ticked up slightly. And yet, beneath all that data, one thing became obvious: this isn't a struggling market. It's a balancing one.
Let's break it down.
Download the full January 2026 Market Action Reports
Portland Metro: Holding Steady Through the Shift
January brought more inventory to Portland Metro than we've seen in quite some time. For the first time since pre-pandemic numbers, active listings climbed to 4.3 months of supply; a pretty sizeable jump up from 2.9 months at the end of 2025. What does it mean though?
If you review the chart on page 1 of the report, you will notice that inventory always takes a jump from December to January. It's a repeated pattern and therefore we can learn something from it. From 2024 to 2025, the jump was about a 27% increase. This year it's about a 33% jump. The increase makes sense: it is during the time of year when sales slow way down. Inventory accumulates during this time each year. If the pattern holds true, we will see that number dip back down by about 13-14% in next month's report.
The pattern is showing us steady consistency moving toward a balanced real estate market (4-6 months of inventory).
But here's the thing: even with inventory ticking upwards, prices aren't collapsing. They're simply adjusting. The average sale price in January was $568,000, down 5.4% from last year. But for the rolling 12-month comparison, both average and median prices held completely flat at 0.0% change year over year. We are calling this the market plateau. Not climbing. Not declining.
Metric | January 2026 | vs. Jan 2025 |
New Listings | 2,109 | -4.4% |
Pending Sales | 1,708 | -0.6% |
Closed Sales | 1,111 | -8.4% |
Average Sale Price | $568,000 | -5.4% |
Median Sale Price | $510,000 | -5.0% |
Total Market Time | 89 days | +1 day |
Inventory | 4.3 months | +0.6 months |
What This Means for our Buyers
In the Portland Metro markets of Beaverton, Tigard, Portland, Sherwood, and Hillsboro, this means that buyers have choices again. Homes are taking 2-3 months to sell, which means that buyers have time to make a decision carefully, and likely include meaningful negotiations like seller concessions and repairs.
In Yamhill County markets like Newberg, Dundee, Dayton, or McMinnville, the average time on market is only slightly higher - about 99 days. Buyers can typically approach their home selection more methodically. We are routinely seeing multiple homes in a single tour day with so many options available currently. For those of us who have been in this industry to see a few cycles, we recognize this as a return to normalcy, not something to be concerned about.
What This Means for our Sellers
For our sellers, pricing is absolutely key. In a balanced market, an overpriced home rises above the others in precisely the wrong way. The best way to get a strong and quick offer is to price something really well, dare we say slightly low. That will grab the attention of buyers and you are more likely to see multiple, strong offers.
We saw this in our fixer-upper, listed in Beaverton 2 weeks ago. Amy advised the seller to price it aggressively, given some of the condition aspects such as the roof and exterior paint. She still advised that the seller install new carpet and have the home professionally cleaned, allowing buyers to see the potential of the home. We had 17 showings in 3 days and generated 5 strong offers, 2 of which were well over asking price. One was accepted and another place in a back-up position.
The bottom line is that the conversation around price is very situationally-driven. Is the home in a desirable neighborhood where nothing ever comes available? That will be a factor. Is it in an entry level price point for the market? That will increase demand. We are here to synthesize both the data and our knowledge of the market in order to help sellers make confident pricing decisions that generate the desired outcome: offers from qualified buyers.
Polk & Marion Counties: Small Shifts, Big Implications
The communities just south of wine country and the Portland metro markets followed a similar pattern, but with its typical exaggeration for the area. Inventory jumped to 5.9 months, which it definitively a balanced market and moving toward a buyer's market. That's a significant amount of available housing, and it's creating opportunities for buyers who've been priced out in years past.
New listings were up 16.3% compared to January 2025, which tells you sellers are feeling confident enough to list. Pending sales rose 5.8%, meaning buyers are still showing up and making offers. But closed sales? Down 17.0%. That gap between pending and closed suggests deals are taking longer to finalize, likely due to financing, inspections, or negotiation. It also speaks to buyer confidence, which has waned more in the Salem markets.
Prices softened slightly:
Metric | January 2026 | vs. Jan 2025 |
New Listings | 257 | +16.3% |
Pending Sales | 181 | +5.8% |
Closed Sales | 112 | -17.0% |
Average Sale Price | $438,600 | -6.3% |
Median Sale Price | $426,500 | -5.2% |
Total Market Time | 78 days | +1 day |
Inventory | 5.9 months | +2.2 months |
The Bigger Picture
Even with prices down 5-6%, the rolling 12-month comparison shows stability:
• Average sale price: +2.4% ($476,900 vs. $465,700)
• Median sale price: +2.1% ($448,000 vs. $438,900)
The Pattern We're Watching
If you've been following our monthly reports, you know we track patterns, not just numbers. We love the graphs, because they help us to look into the future a bit. The curves take the same shape each year, and so we anticipate, given that January was already buzzing with new buyer and seller activity, that this spring looks strong.
It currently looks like:
More inventory → Longer decision time → Stable prices → Motivated activity
And as spring approaches, shifts to:
Market confidence → Increased Buyer Activity→ Inventory dips
This is what we predicted in past market action updates. Inventory levels dropped from November to December, and January brought them roaring back. We're now entering the season that historically delivers the best results for sellers: Spring.
Here's what else the data tells us:
• Buyers are active. Pending sales stayed relatively flat year-over-year in Portland Metro (-0.6%) and actually rose in Polk & Marion (+5.8%).
• Sellers are confident. New listings jumped significantly in both markets, especially in wine country.
• Homes are moving. Even with more inventory, market time only increased by 1 day in both regions. That's stability, not slowdown.
What We're Recommending in 2026
For Sellers
Price it right from the start. With nearly 6 months of inventory in Polk & Marion and about 4 months in Portland Metro, buyers have options. Overpricing leads to longer market time and often doesn't achieve a higher sale price in the end.
Condition and presentation matter more than ever. Buyers are seeking concessions and tend to be more aggressive when a home needs work. Clean, move-in-ready homes stand out and sell well.
Spring is coming, position accordingly. We're moving into the season that typically delivers the best results. If you're thinking of selling, now is the time to strategize.
Deal in facts and data, not speculation. The market is stable, but it's not 2021. Work with professionals who understand the market cycles and have deep industry knowledge, and then let us do what we do: deliver great results.
For Buyers
You have leverage, use it wisely. Growing inventory gives you better options and negotiating power. Take your time, do your due diligence, and don't rush into a decision. And if the right home gets competitive, don't lose momentum. That is very much still a part of our market.
Don't expect steals. While negotiation room exists, sellers still have market data backing their asking prices. It's rare to "get a steal" in this type of market but you can get fair value.
Patience and expert guidance matter. With more inventory comes more complexity. Work with someone who can help you evaluate options, understand value, and negotiate effectively.
Deal in facts and data, not emotion. Just because a home has been on the market for 60 days doesn't mean the seller is desperate. We can help you understand the why behind the delay by evaluating area sales. Reach out for help.
A Local Team, Backed by Proven Results
As we head into the second month of 2026 (wow!!!), we want to thank all of those who have entrusted their real estate transactions to our team. Bella Casa Real Estate Group continues to rank as the number one brokerage in our area, a reflection of exceptional service, strong data-driven strategy, and deep local expertise.
The McCreith Team is proud to work within a brokerage that puts professionalism, collaboration, and client-first standards at the center of everything we do.
Thinking About a Move in 2026?
Whether you're buying, selling, or simply trying to understand what today's market means for your home, The McCreith Team is here to help you build a clear plan.
Our approach is steady, data-driven, and grounded in fundamentals: no pressure, no hype, just honest guidance based on what's actually happening in the market.
Reach out to Amy, Catherine, or Joni anytime. We're always happy to talk through options, timing, and next steps.
Amy McCormick, Principal Broker.
Phone: 503-310-7803
Email: amy@thebellacasagroup.com
Catherine Summers, Principal Broker
Phone: 971-219-9858
Joni McCreith, Principal Broker
Phone: 503-310-5613
Email: joni@thebellacasagroup.com
Comments