Clients and friends,
The February Market Action Report is here, and we’ve got a few takeaways to go along with it for you:
(download the Market Action Report PDF here)
Takeaway #1: Inventory is trending up.
It’s still not enough of an upward trend to shift the supply-demand imbalance, but the typical increase in new listings that we see at the turn of the year, along with a decrease in pending and closed sales during the first 2 months of the year, has translated to more existing inventory (Active Residential Listings) than both preceding years (see graphs on page 4 & 5).
As mentioned, this isn’t a dramatic enough shift to move from a seller’s market to a buyers’ market. In fact, the Inventory in Months graph (page 2) demonstrates that these months are doing exactly what they’ve done in years-past: November sees the highest levels of inventory, it drops a bit in December, bounces back up again in January, and then down a bit again in February. So while total active residential listings available are moving upward, available months of inventory still came down, because we still have the demand to meet and exceed the current supply.
Takeaway #2: We can use these numbers strategically!
When you plan ahead to sell, knowing the trends and patterns of past years truly can serve in maximizing your impact. If you look at the consistent shape of the graphs on pages 4-6, there’s really no reason to doubt that new listings will continue to climb in the coming months, peaking around June and then will continue to trend downward throughout the remainder of the year. During that same period, total time on the market will trend downward, making a turn and trending upward mid-way through the year. And most fascinating to us is the upward trend in average sold price change that happens in the first part of the year, usually peaking in May. The chart shows a dramatic change in 2022 – this was when interest rates took a massive jump. But even though the change wasn’t as dramatic in 2023, the sold price change still trends downward in the later half of the year.
What is The McCreith Team seeing?
We’re matching the trend: This year our team has already seen the outworking of this trend. We are taking more calls for CMAs (comparative market analysis) and new listings than we did during these same months last year.
More cash in the market: Higher price points, while they may sit on the market a bit longer than those below the average/median price points, are receiving cash offers. There is strong liquidity in the market.
We still can’t keep entry level homes on the market: homes under the average/median price point simply don’t sit on the market. They are still selling almost immediately upon listing and can still get multiple offers.
Projections for interest rates: Some claim that the projection for interest rates will trend downward throughout 2024. If that proves to be the case, we are likely to see a stronger seller’s market than we are currently experiencing. We’ll be keeping an eye on what happens leading up to the Fed’s March meeting, but we generally see rate cuts as unlikely in the near term due to the risk of reigniting inflation.
Want to know what your home is worth? It doesn’t matter if you are thinking of selling now or just curious about the equity you have in your home. Reach out to us via the contact information below or follow this link: https://www.themccreithteam.com/what-s-my-home-worth.
We’ll connect and have a valuation to you ASAP, likely within the week.
The McCreith Team | www.themccreithteam.com
To Email: Joni McCreith
To Email: Catherine Summers
To Email: Amy McCormick
To Email: Molly Barajas
For a full, in-depth analysis, download the PDF below.